I read recently about what Microsoft has been up to for the last 4 years since releasing Windows XP.
XP was quite a good release, in that it worked better than its predecessors. Unfortunately that was largely a reflection of the quality of its predecessors (did anyone ever use Windows ME?). Sadly as well as making it actually work Microsoft added their usual stylistic kipple - cartoon dogs, Fisher-Price buttons, an extra 20 ways to do everything and another 28 zillion different pointless and time-wasting customisation options.
Since XP came out, LCD monitors have taken over and the average hard-drive has grown from 20gb to 200gb. Digital SLRs have gone from 3 megapixels to 16, and TV is now delivered digitally. With the rapid uptake of broadband, the internet has become a proper resource, used by normal people (eg your girlfriend/wife) as well as sad techie blokes.
So in an age where home computing technology is becoming a part of normal people's everyday lives faster than ever before, have Microsoft risen to the challenge? What added value does Windows Vista offer? Are there proper improvements or is mr paperclip man just available in a variety of customisable sizes and colours (with an extra pop-up menu to choose whether he appears at the left or right hand side of the screen) at a slightly higher resolution?
Do we have voice-control? Digital dictation via mobile phone at the operating-system level, perhaps? Maybe the computer-equivalent of predictive-text where the operating system finds those photos it's hidden away somewhere random for you? Core-level protection from viruses and spyware? Maybe the whole thing actually works without crashing?
It seems not.
But they have added a snazzy translucent "glass" effect to the windows. Only downside is that it requires a "games" level graphics card. If you have figured out that PC games are totally crap and it would be much more sensible to get a Playstation 3 instead, you may well find that you have to buy expensive new hardware just to display the operating system properly.
Basically I expect Windows Vista to be another "upgrade" in the vein we've seen before, ie just Windows 3.1 with added complication, confusion, irritating cartoon characters and expense. Microsoft is a monopoly, but no monopoly can survive consistent incompetence - there are plenty of other geeks out there who are more in tune with reality. My prediction is that Uncle Bill has horribly blown it, and his dominance of home computing will be over within a decade.
Windows 3.1 was designed for stand-alone machines in the days before the internet, digital cameras, and 3G mobiles. Nowadays we don't want stand-alone machines, we want access to our email, files and programs from any machine anywhere in the world. The next step for digital cameras (increasingly converging with mobile phones) will be for the photos to automatically be uploaded onto a server, from which they can be shared, edited, printed etc. This should be possible from any machine with a browser, be it a PC, a Mac, a mobile phone or a set-top box. Thus operating systems and microsoft software become less and less relevant, whilst the big bucks will be made by the likes of Google, Yahoo and mobile phone companies.